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The global economy in transition

Michael Spence
Michael Spence6/8/2022 03:08 PM GMT+08  • 6 min read
The global economy in transition
The US appears increasingly likely to face a major economic slowdown, a recession is not the most likely scenario / Photo by Paul Cuad on Unsplash
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Recent conversations about the global economy and markets have been defined by a set of recurring questions. While there are many moving parts that are difficult to capture in a single clear picture, it is worth attempting to bring some of the biggest issues into better focus.

Recession poser

The first question is straightforward: Is a recession looming? With authoritative growth forecasts like those from the International Monetary Fund having been revised significantly downwards, and likely to be downgraded further, there is good reason to worry. But a global recession — defined as two consecutive quarters of negative GDP growth — remains unlikely, though a major shock, such as a dramatic expansion of conflict or a sudden and significant disruption in a key market like energy, could change this outlook.

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