As the Russian invasion of Ukraine reaches its three-week mark, the economic fallout raises the possibility of tipping economies into recession — specifically those in Europe already burdened with inflationary woes, warns Chua Hak Bin, Maybank Investment Banking Group’s regional co-head for macro research.
Now, despite the conflict feeling like “someone else’s war” due to the distance it is taking place from Asean, the economic impact can be felt in the region.
In a webinar on March 14, Chua observes that although Asean has relatively small trade links with Russia, with the latter only making up only 0.4% of trade and 0.1% of foreign direct investment (FDI), the effects of the conflict could spill over to affect the European market, which could have a “larger adverse impact on us”, he says.
