LONDON (Dec 27): When it comes to the outlook for emerging markets in 2020, the bottom line is maddeningly simple: “It’s complicated.” There are a number of reasons for this.

For starters, we are living in extraordinary times, owing to the unpredictable personality of the current American president. As the 2020 US presidential election approaches, Donald Trump’s behavior is likely to become even more erratic than it already is.

One can only begin to imagine what steps Trump will take to improve his re-election chances. Will he engage in even more saber rattling, threatening, say, additional tariffs against China or military action against Iran? Or will he focus on keeping financial conditions accommodative in order to ward off a slowdown or recession just before the election?

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