2021 is the year of the Ox and it is said that those born this year are generally reliable and trustworthy although they can expect to face obstacles early on. Following a year of extreme market volatility, markets may hope for the same. 

China has been leading the post-Covid global economic recovery by example. Covid-19 has necessitated a multi-dimensional policy approach to improving healthcare outcomes and putting the real economy back to solid footing via targeted monetary and fiscal policy. Efforts to limit infection rates and stabilise the economy have been fruitful: the Chinese economy has already surpassed its pre-crisis GDP level. We expect a majority of developed and emerging markets to follow China’s footsteps and reach pre-crisis levels of economic activity during H2 2021. 

The rising global tide of growth will likely further fuel the Chinese economy. However, once the tide pulls away, we should see the full effects of pre-existing trends that have accelerated thanks to Covid-19. In our view, two trends are likely to have the most impact on the Chinese economy and society in the long-term: deglobalisation and digitalisation. 

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