SINGAPORE (Mar 20): The Covid-19 crisis has continued to deteriorate. As a result, governments are rolling out massive stimulus policies at a stunning pace. The question then is what net effect these trends will have on the duration and impact of the crisis.

Our take is that, first, it is reasonable to conclude from the stringent measures being implemented that, by April or May the pace of new infections and associated panics should subside in the key economies, thus allowing a global recovery to begin in the third quarter of the year. Second, it is also important to look beyond the immediate crisis because there are likely to be substantial changes to come from this pandemic.

The pandemic will eventually burn out

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