What could move markets in 2019?

SINGAPORE (Dec 24): After a year of wild gyrations in markets, shocking political developments and unexpected economic challenges, some analysts are even wondering whether there is any point in making forecasts for next year. Indeed, the margin of error is much higher around any judgement call on geopolitical risks, global economic growth, monetary policies of the major central banks, and how bad the trade wars might be. But these are the principal drivers of the global economy; like it or not, we have to get the best possible gauge of where they will head in 2019. So, here goes our effort.

Next year will see major geopolitical shocks

Pressures are building in key flash points, which means that there is a very high chance that one or more of these could reach breaking point.