SINGAPORE (Aug 20): It has been a dramatic week for emerging markets — in particular, Turkey. And, while the unfolding carnage has parallels with what happened in Southeast Asia almost exactly 20 years ago, I cannot help thinking that things will not turn out quite so well this time around.

On Aug 10, US President Donald Trump pushed Turkey further towards a financial crisis by tweeting: “I have just authorized a doubling of tariffs on steel and aluminum with respect to Turkey as their currency, the Turkish lira, slides rapidly downward against our very strong dollar.” The lira, which was already sinking, immediately tumbled nearly 20%. It has since recovered somewhat, after Qatar said on Aug 15 it would invest some US$15 billion ($20.6 billion) in Turkey. But the rebound is unlikely to last if Turkey does not begin addressing its economic shortcomings.

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