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Chinese economy slowing but will not collapse

Daryl Guppy
Daryl Guppy1/28/2019 07:30 AM GMT+08  • 5 min read
Chinese economy slowing but will not collapse
SINGAPORE (Jan 26): It is that time of the year again and the China bears are out in force. The official calculations of China’s economic growth for 2018 have come in at 6.6%. For some, it is clear that the Chinese economy is going to collapse. The reas
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SINGAPORE (Jan 26): It is that time of the year again and the China bears are out in force. The official calculations of China’s economic growth for 2018 have come in at 6.6%. For some, it is clear that the Chinese economy is going to collapse. The reasons are myriad, retrospective and inaccurate.

I have covered the Chinese economy since 2004 and every year it is the same: The Chinese economy is unsustainable; it cannot grow; the figures are unreliable; the debt is too high; the shadow banks will implode; the property bubble will burst; youth unemployment is too high; and infrastructure stimulus is not the answer and is unsustainable. The reasons include tariffs, democracy, inequality and China running out of food. Everything imaginable is going to cause the collapse of the Chinese economy.

These same commentators conveniently forget the way China reacted to the 2008 financial crisis, with its collapsing economy and the role it played in holding world economies together and its massive contribution to global growth. This does not fit their narrative of a collapsing Chinese economy, so they ignore this economic contribution.

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