US-China trade war

As central banks cut rates, beware of liquidity traps, says OCBC's Lee

(Nov 18): A decade of playing vigorous sports, coupled with poor sleeping and working habits, slowly resulted in a slip-disc problem for Howie Lee that required surgery.

Similarly, events such as the US-China trade war, Brexit, the unrests in Hong Kong, tepid growth even amid a low interest rate environment in many economies did not occur overnight. Rather, their genesis can be traced to the global financial crisis, says Lee, an economist at Oversea-Chinese Banking Corp, speaking at a recent forum organised by The Edge Singapore.

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Briefs

SINGAPORE (Nov 11): “The system of making capitalism work well for most people is broken.”Ray Dalio, founder of hedge fund Bridgewater Associates

Trump-Xi trade summit likely pushed to December

US President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign a partial trade deal until December, and two US locations have been ruled out for their highly anticipated meeting, according to a person familiar with the matter.

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Global economy set to deliver upside surprise

SINGAPORE (Nov 11): A quick scan of the headlines shows continued pessimism about the world economy. Respected international organisations such as the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund (IMF) have downgraded their forecasts for global growth and many institutions with super-duper forecasting models have also chimed in with downbeat prognostications. On the surface, this makes sense since the downside risks sound pretty intimidating: a nasty trade war, weaker momentum in some large economies such as the eurozone and China and some formidable geopolitical risks.

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Trump-Xi trade summit may be pushed back to December

(Nov 7): President Donald Trump and Chinese President Xi Jinping may not be able to sign a partial trade deal until December, and two US locations have been ruled out for their highly anticipated meeting, according to a person familiar with the matter.

The two sides have been trying to negotiate a limited trade deal that would entail the US dropping some tariffs on Chinese imports in exchange for Beijing resuming purchases of American farm goods and other products.

Xi Says China will focus on imports, further lower tariffs

(Nov 5): President Xi Jinping said China would focus more on imports and further lower tariffs in his first opportunity to address global investors since the world’s two largest economies resumed trade talks in September.

“China will give greater importance to imports. We will continue to lower tariffs and institutional transaction costs,” he said in a keynote speech at the start of a trade expo Tuesday morning in Shanghai. He said China was willing to sign high-standard free trade agreements with more countries.

Southeast Asian countries to win from the trade war in the medium term

SINGAPORE (Nov 4): Today, one in five manufactured goods globally comes from China — a great leap from its 3% contribution in 1996. The rapid rise of China’s export engine, especially in manufacturing, and its ambition to produce the highly prized “high-tech goods” set out in its “China Manufacturing 2025” strategy, appears to be the key motivation behind the US-led trade war against China.

The question today is whether other economies in Asia can really benefit from such a trade war, and the answer very much depends on the time frame analysed.

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China rolls out world's largest 5G mobile phone network

(Oct 31): China’s three state-owned wireless carriers debuted 5G mobile phone services Thursday, a milestone in the country’s push to become a technology power even as it remains locked in a trade war with the US.

China Mobile, the country’s largest carrier, unveiled its network in 50 cities including Beijing, Shanghai and Shenzhen, with packages priced as low as 128 yuan ($25) a month. Rivals China Telecom Corp and China Unicom Hong Kong also introduced their services at comparable rates.

How the trade war and a changing China are roiling world shipping

(Oct 31): The trade war and China’s economic shift made 2018 a tough year for global shipping and will continue to reverberate through the industry, according to the United Nations Conference on Trade and Development.

Maritime shipping volumes grew just 2.7% to 11 billion tons last year, UNCTAD said in its annual review of the maritime industry, less than a 4.1% expansion the year before. The slowdown was broad-based with geopolitical turmoil, recessions in some emerging markets and Brexit also playing a role.

Cautious outlook on US market with recession fears; central banks more responsive in pulling levers

From left to right: OCBC economist Howie Lee,  CEO of TD Ameritrade Singapore Chris Brankin, Head of economics and strategy at Mizuho Bank Vishnu Varathan

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Market observers aren't panicking just yet despite increasing risks to global economy, says DBS

SINGAPORE (Oct 21): Despite a deteriorating global economic outlook, market observers are not panicking yet owing to the possibility that growth could still find support from several drivers.

These include low interest rates, “some sort of a trade deal”, bottoming of electronics demand, and the “revival” of a few large emerging market economies, says Taimur Baig, chief economist at DBS Bank.

On Oct 18, China announced third quarter GDP of just 6%, its slowest growth in almost three decades as factor production and investment sentiment were hit by the trade war.

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