US-China trade tensions


US, China closer to trade deal despite harsh rhetoric

The US and China are moving closer to agreeing on the amount of tariffs that would be rolled back in a phase one trade deal despite tensions over Hong Kong and Xinjiang, people familiar with the talks said.


Shanghai in steady, slow downtrend

(Dec 9): In what has become a normal week, US President Donald Trump has imposed new tariffs on friends, foes and innocent bystanders. This includes the French, and several Latin American countries. He has indicated that a China trade deal may be off until after the next US election. The impact of this attack on the global rules-based order on markets was noticeable.


Acting on fears rather than evidence is path to ruin

SINGAPORE (Nov 18): The worst US foreign-policy decision of the last generation — and perhaps longer — was the “war of choice” that it launched in Iraq in 2003 for the stated purpose of eliminating weapons of mass destruction that did not, in fact, exist. Understanding the illogic behind that disastrous decision has never been more relevant, because it is being used to justify a similarly misguided US policy today.


IMF cuts Singapore's 2019 growth forecast to 0.5%

SINGAPORE (Oct 23): The International Monetary Fund (IMF) has slashed its 2019 growth prediction for Singapore to 0.5%, down from its previous estimate of 2% in July.

This is the second downward revision by the IMF, which had forecast a 2.3% growth for the city state in its World Economic Outlook in April.

Amid an uncertain global economic outlook plagued by the downturn in electronics and exports, Singapore officials currently forecast a growth rate of between 0% and 1% this year.

Matthews Asia's Rothman sees US-China deal by year-end; remains bullish on consumer demand story

SINGAPORE (Oct 21): As a US diplomat and then China analyst for more than three decades, Andy Rothman had a ringside seat for how China emerged from the rubble of the Cultural Revolution, advanced after the Cold War and grew from being “basically irrelevant” to world trade to become the world’s second-largest economy. 


China still a developing country

(Oct 21): Next week, I will visit Nanshan in Shenzhen. Some describe it as China’s Silicon Valley and home to high-tech companies. If you want cutting-edge technology, 5G development and artificial intelligence programming, this is where you go. Nanshan district is a model high-tech, sophisticated, smart-city development, and it stands in stark contrast to Dunhuang in remote Gansu province, which I visited a few weeks ago to speak at a Belt and Road roundtable forum. 


Investors need to diversify amid market volatility, says DBS in 4Q outlook

SINGAPORE (Oct 3): The investment landscape is quickly changing, amid ongoing US-China trade tensions as well as fluctuations in gold and oil prices. And, to ride the wave of uncertainty, DBS Bank has one key piece of advice for investors: Diversification is key.

In the bank’s 4Q outlook on Thursday, aptly themed “Ride the Wave”, DBS Chief Investment Officer Hou Wey Fook focused on how investors should grapple with the “new normal” marked by near-zero to negative cash and bond yields. 

IMF launches World Trade Uncertainty index; Asia-Pacific among regions feeling the heat most

(Sept 10): The newly minted World Trade Uncertainty (WTU) index has detected a significant rise in global trade uncertainty after remaining at stable low levels for about 20 years.

The WTU index, which was launched on Monday by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), measures uncertainty related to trade for 143 individual countries on a quarterly basis.

Concerns about global trade hit nearly 10 times the peaks seen in previous decades and could shave about 0.75 percentage point off world economic growth this year, the IMF said, in reference to the data it had compiled.

Tech leaders in Asia warn of supply chain split

Tech leaders in Asia are warning that risks from ongoing trade tensions are broadening, accelerating the fragmentation of the global industry and threatening collaboration in key research areas.

Global investor risk appetite wanes amid supply chain disruption, Brexit uncertainties: State Street

SINGAPORE (Aug 1): Investors across North America, Europe and Asia Pacific are showing a waning appetite for risk, according to State Street Corporation’s Investor Confidence Index (ICI) for July.

Global ICI fell 2.4 points to 84.9 in July, compared to June’s revised reading of 87.3.

The index measures investor confidence or risk appetite quantitatively by analysing the actual buying and selling patterns of institutional investors.

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