macroeconomics

Singapore M&A continues growth despite dwindling 1Q regional activity: Mergermarket

SINGAPORE (April 3): Merger and acquisition (M&A) activity in Asia-Pacific excluding Japan nosedived over 1Q19 with just 666 deals amounting to US$119.9 billion ($162.3 billion), amid economic headwinds and a still-unresolved trade war between the US and China.

This is according to the latest report by Mergermarket, which highlights that 1Q19 dealmaking was at its lowest since 1Q19 in value after China’s growth began sputtering last year in 2H.

US-China trade truce to conclude with short-term resolutions at best: AmCham China

SINGAPORE (Feb 1): American Chamber of Commerce in China (AmCham China) says the best-case scenario emerging from the 90-day truce between US and China, which ends on March 1, would be a mutual agreement to short-term measures.

“The fundamental problem is a difference in the economic systems: the Chinese government has identified a whole range of industries that are strategically important, and they want to use all the resources of the state to ensure that Chinese companies excel and become world leaders in those industries,” says the organisation in a statement issued on Friday.

Bright spots to be found in bleak 2019 global growth outlook: Fitch

SINGAPORE (Jan 18): Fitch Ratings says decent US domestic demand and real GDP growth of over 6% for China are still two achievable scenarios in 2019, in spite of market concerns of a sharp downturn in growth this year.

According to a note issued by Fitch on Thursday, the ratings agency says the broad contours of its Dec 2018 Global Economic Outlook (GEO) forecasts for 2019 – which entail above-trend growth in the US and policy easing preventing growth dipping below 6% in China – still look intact.

Market cheer from US-China trade talks may be short-lived, warns UOB

SINGAPORE (Jan 10):  UOB Global Economics & Markets Research says bilateral trade relations between the US and China will be “fraught with difficulties” despite the positive steps made with their first face-to-face meeting since their 90-day truce, which concluded on Jan 9 after a one-day extension.

Both parties released short statements following the meeting indicating they resolved to work towards some resolution.

Steady, not strong as Southeast Asia faces growth risks in 2019

SINGAPORE (Dec 26): Last year, economists predicted Southeast Asia would be blessed with a strong and vibrant 2018. For next year, they’re not quite so optimistic.

Moderating economic growth and higher interest rates lie ahead. The Federal Reserve is set to keep everyone on edge as it navigates an even trickier interest-rate path in 2019, while the trade war between the US and China is already hurting exports in the region. The Philippines might eke out a small gain in growth in 2019, if their bets that inflation will diminish come to fruition.

Singapore M&A deals to cool as global trade concerns continue into 2019: Baker McKenzie

SINGAPORE (Dec 17): Following a strong year of merger and acquisition (M&A) activity – largely thanks to Nesta Investment Holdings’ US$11.6 billion buyout of Global Logistic Properties (GLP) – Singapore is forecast to see a modest cooling in total M&A, from US$36 billion this year to about US$26 billion in 2019.

This is according to Baker McKenzie’s new Global Transactions Forecast 2019 report, which is based on forecast macroeconomic indicators from Oxford Economics along with insights from Baker McKenzie partners in 42 markets worldwide.

5 things Nouriel Roubini has to say about the global trade outlook

SINGAPORE (July 6): In the words of Nouriel Roubini, everybody loses in a trade war.

Currently a professor of economics at New York University’s Stern School of Business, the prominent American economist has worked at the International Monetary Fund, US Federal Reserve and World Bank – and more recently, was among the keynote speakers Amundi World Investment Forum 2018 conference in Paris on June 28 and 29. Here are some of his views:

Trade war won't be full blown; stay overweight on US, says DBS

SINGAPORE (July 2): Worries over trade tensions between the US versus China and Europe may have rattled markets in recent months, but DBS believes that a protracted, full-blown war is not likely to happen.

“End of the day, this will be resolved, it will not be full blown. Everyone recognises the costs,” says the bank’s chief investment officer Hou Wey Fook (photo).

Asian consumption on upward trend despite weak G7 growth in 2018: Oxford Economics

SINGAPORE (May 25): Relatively weak consumption growth is likely to persist across G7 nations this year, says Oxford Economics on the belief that the impact of a recovery in real incomes will be dampened by higher oil prices and waning wealth effects going forward. 

The research firm’s baseline forecast is for G7 household spending growth to remain broadly stable in 2018, but for the key drivers – namely income, housing wealth, equity wealth and interest rates – to rotate.

These risks could derail the 'Goldilocks economy' in 2018

SINGAPORE (Dec 22): DBS Group Research is positive on both developed and emerging economies for the year ahead despite the anticipated tightening of central bank liquidity.

The research house is forecasting for Singapore’s policy interest rates to hit 2.15% by the end of 4Q18 based on a three-month swap offer rate (SOR), with the city state’s exchange rates to rise by 0.01 point to 1.40 by the end of 3Q18, before going back down to 2Q’s projected 1.39 level in 4Q18.

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