inflation

Is politics getting to the Fed?

SINGAPORE (July 29): From the early 1980s until the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, the US Federal Reserve seemed to have a coherent process for adjusting its main short-term interest rate — the federal funds rate. Its policy had three key components: the nominal interest rate would rise by more than the rate of inflation; it would increase in response to a strengthening of the real economy; and it would tend towards a long-term normal value.

Is politics getting to the Fed?

SINGAPORE (July 29): From the early 1980s until the start of the financial crisis in September 2008, the US Federal Reserve seemed to have a coherent process for adjusting its main short-term interest rate — the federal funds rate. Its policy had three key components: the nominal interest rate would rise by more than the rate of inflation; it would increase in response to a strengthening of the real economy; and it would tend towards a long-term normal value.

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Escalating global trade protectionism tops wall of worry again: MAS survey of forecasters

SINGAPORE (June 12): Concerns about escalating global trade protectionism continue to dominate the list of potential downside risks, reflecting recent developments in US-China relations.

The proportion of respondents who expect an escalation in trade frictions to present a downside risk also rose to 94.1%.

This according to the June survey of professional forecasters by the economic policy group of the Monetary Authority of Singapore (MAS) which was published on Wednesday.

MAS seen to maintain monetary policy stance as growth slows sharply: Maybank

SINGAPORE (Apr 3): Maybank Kim Eng expects the Monetary Authority of Singapore to maintain its current monetary policy stance at the April meeting as growth slows sharply and core inflation eases.

This comes after two straight tightening moves in Apr and Oct last year, when the MAS steepened the S$NEER appreciation bias slightly.

Dampening growth outlook is a stronger Singapore dollar; rising domestic interest rates; additional property curbs and stricter foreign worker measures, says Maybank.

Slowdown more likely than global recession, says Oxford Economics, unless ...

SINGAPORE (Mar 25): The global economy may continue to slow down in the near term but the world will probably dodge a recession this year unless it is hit by big shocks or serious policy errors, says Oxford Economics.

Since 1980, Oxford Economics says there have been eight significant global slowdowns in which world growth has decelerated below its long-term average of 2.9%.

But of the eight slowdowns, four ended up turning into recessions but the two most recent global soft patches of 2011-12 and 2015-16 did not.

Singapore central bank chief says policy stimulus may not be necessary

SINGAPORE (Mar 4): Singapore’s monetary policy stance remains appropriate for current conditions and there is no need for policy stimulus if the economy performs as expected, central bank managing director Ravi Menon said.

Growth will probably come in at the midpoint of the 1.5% to 3.5% forecast range for this year, or slightly lower, bringing “the economy back to its potential,” Menon said at an event hosted by Citigroup in Singapore on Feb 27. “There’s no need for stimulus if this continues this way.”

Singapore among few Asian countries forecast to enjoy real wage growth this year

SINGAPORE (Jan 31): Singapore’s workforce is due for an average salary increase of 4% this year compared to 3.7% predicted in 2018, according to a forecast issued today by consulting firm Korn Ferry.

The data was drawn from Korn Ferry’s pay database of over 20 million job holders in 25,000 organisations across more than 110 countries. It showed predicted salary increases as forecasted by global HR leaders for this year, as compared to 2019 inflation forecasts from the Economist Intelligent Unit’s (EIU).

Steady, not strong as Southeast Asia faces growth risks in 2019

SINGAPORE (Dec 26): Last year, economists predicted Southeast Asia would be blessed with a strong and vibrant 2018. For next year, they’re not quite so optimistic.

Moderating economic growth and higher interest rates lie ahead. The Federal Reserve is set to keep everyone on edge as it navigates an even trickier interest-rate path in 2019, while the trade war between the US and China is already hurting exports in the region. The Philippines might eke out a small gain in growth in 2019, if their bets that inflation will diminish come to fruition.

How Singapore's projected 2.6% salary increase for 2019 fare against global peers

SINGAPORE (Nov 22): After factoring in higher inflation of 1.4% as predicted by the International Monetary Fund (IMF), the average Singaporean employee is expected to see a real salary increase of 2.6% in 2019 – down from the 2.9% increase received in 2018 and slightly below the Asia Pacific average of 2.7%.

Notwithstanding inflation, Singaporeans will see their salaries increase by 4% next year.

Amid the trade war, watch for inflationary risks in China: JP Morgan's Ulrich

SINGAPORE (Oct 25): The trade war between US and China has hogged headlines for the better part of the year. But amid all the new salvos of trade tariffs, China’s policymakers are to be mindful of another risk: Inflation, warns JP Morgan Asia Pacific’s vice chairman Jing Ulrich.

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