global economy

State Street's investor confidence index up 8.2 points to 87.6 as central banks turn dovish

SINGAPORE (June 27): The State Street Investor Confidence Index (ICI) has increased to 87.6, up 8.2 points from May’s revised reading of 79.4 – a reflection of how investors across all regions investors across all regions have an improved appetite for risk.

EPS growth of global markets likely to slow from 16% to 5%: Citi 2H outlook

SINGAPORE (June 25): Diversify your investments; Don’t time the markets; and look at opportunities in Emerging Markets, says Citi Private Bank in its mid-year outlook report.

Although global economic growth appears firm for the time being, the trade war between China and the United States as well as the Iran oil export sanctions have cast a pall of uncertainty over the investment horizon.

According to Citi, EPS growth of global stocks is likely to slow from 16% to 5%, while EPS growth of US stocks should slow from 23% to 4% due to its high dependence on trade. 

Largest Singapore M&A deal done in 1H2019, but bankers earned lower amount of fees than before

SINGAPORE (June 24): The total value of merger and acquisition deals involving Singapore entities surged in the first half of this year, boosted by what is by far Singapore’s largest deal ever: the sale of Global Logistic Properties’ US logistics assets to Blackstone Group for US$18.7 billion ($25.4 billion). In total, some US$59.4 billion worth of M&A deals were transacted in the first half of this year alone. That is 64% more than the same period the year before, according to data from Refinitiv. However, investment bankers collected lower fees during the period.

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Get ready for more bad news for the global economy

SINGAPORE (June 10): The gods have been conspiring against the world economy, where nothing seems to be going right. Economic activity is losing vitality virtually everywhere — even the seemingly unstoppable US economy is slowing. Tensions between the US and China are escalating. And this has not stopped the US from ramping up trade aggression even against friendly nations such as Malaysia and Singapore or potential strategic allies such as India.

How bad will things get and what will the impact be on regional economies?

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Singapore's weak 1Q GDP growth signals tough times ahead: RHB

SINGAPORE (May 28): RHB Research is turning negative on Singapore’s short-term economic outlook on expectations of a prolonged slowdown in the electronics sector as well as weaker global growth prospects.

As such, the research house is revising its 2019 GDP growth estimate downward to 1.8% from 2.5% previously.

The global economy is better than you think

SINGAPORE (Apr 15): Gloom pervades the reports we read on the global economy. Data showing a slowdown is described breathlessly as the worst in so many months or years, giving a sense that things are just getting from bad to worse. Now, the International Monetary Fund has joined in and downgraded forecasts for global growth. But are things really that bad? In fact, we find five strong reasons why global growth could surprise on the upside, boosting prospects in our trade-dependent region.

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Slowdown more likely than global recession, says Oxford Economics, unless ...

SINGAPORE (Mar 25): The global economy may continue to slow down in the near term but the world will probably dodge a recession this year unless it is hit by big shocks or serious policy errors, says Oxford Economics.

Since 1980, Oxford Economics says there have been eight significant global slowdowns in which world growth has decelerated below its long-term average of 2.9%.

But of the eight slowdowns, four ended up turning into recessions but the two most recent global soft patches of 2011-12 and 2015-16 did not.

The global economy could surprise on the upside

SINGAPORE (Feb 18): Despite the growing pessimism, we think that many of us could be underestimating the chances of a turnaround in the global economy. This is not to question the evidence that the global economy is slowing, which is real, as we discuss below. Nor is it meant to dismiss the downside risks that have emerged. Our view is that the risks can be contained and there are several countervailing forces coming into play that should help crystallise a recovery in global economic activity in the second half of this year.

Trump sees no Xi summit by tariff date, stoking trade worry

WASHINGTON (Feb 8): President Donald Trump said he won’t meet Chinese President Xi Jinping before a March 1 deadline to avert higher US tariffs on Chinese goods, intensifying fears the two won’t strike a deal before the end of a 90-day truce.

Trump responded “No” and shook his head Thursday when reporters at the White House asked him if he would meet with Xi this month. Then he added, “Unlikely.” But the US president said the two would “maybe” meet later.

IMF cuts global growth outlook, cites trade war and weak Europe

DAVOS, Switzerland (Jan 21): The International Monetary Fund on Monday cut its world economic growth forecasts for 2019 and 2020, due to weakness in Europe and some emerging markets, and said failure to resolve trade tensions could further destabilise a slowing global economy.

In its second downgrade in three months, the global lender also cited a bigger-than-expected slowdown in China’s economy and a possible “No Deal” Brexit as risks to its outlook, saying these could worsen market turbulence in financial markets.

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