Fed

Time to stock up on defensive assets for a volatile 2H18, says State Street

SINGAPORE (June 25): State Street Corporation advises investors to start adopting a more defensive stance on expectations of global volatility in 2H18, as the environment becomes more challenging for risky assets such as such as global equities, high-beta developed market currencies, and emerging markets (EMs) in general.

In a Monday release, Lee Ferridge, head of Global Macro Strategy for North America at State Street Global Markets, says he foresees rising inflation and falling liquidity to create a challenging environment for risky assets going forward.

Powell's Fed stays dovish but rates could rise faster than suggested

(Mar 22): The latest FOMC meeting appears to confirm that Chair Jay Powell’s Fed will remain dovish. Interest rates will rise slowly, while changes to the outlook will be incremental and reactive. Monetary policy is not set to turn “tight” until 2020, but we think rates will need to rise faster than the Fed suggests.

See: Fed lifts rates to 1.75% on improving economy; two more increases expected this year

Bond traders watch central-bank decisions to confirm 2018 rout

NEW YORK (Jan 22): The world’s biggest bond market probably needs a little push from central banks to prop up yields at the highest in more than three years.

Saxo Bank predicts 'ugly end' to complacency bubble in 2018

SINGAPORE (Dec 8): Following a generally smooth-sailing year for global risk assets – one that came as a shock to bears and gold bugs expecting 2017 to be the year of volatility – Saxo Bank now sees the pendulum swinging back in favour of pronounced volatility risks, or in short, an “ugly end to the complacency bubble”. 

Buy S-REITs on dips as valuations remain stretched, advises OCBC

SINGAPORE (Aug 22): OCBC Investment Research is maintaining “neutral” on Singapore REITs (S-REITs) after all 24 REITs under its coverage reported 2Q17 results that came in line with its expectations, with overall distribution per unit (DPU) growth coming in flat.

Fed starts to wonder if cornerstone inflation model still works

WASHINGTON (Aug 17): Federal Reserve officials are looking under the hood of their most basic inflation models and starting to ask if something is wrong.

Minutes from the July 25-26 Federal Open Market Committee meeting showed a revealing debate over why the economy isn’t producing more inflation in a time of easy financial conditions, tight labor markets and solid economic growth.

5 investment themes to prepare for the unexpected this year

SINGAPORE (Jan 10): Bank of Singapore (BoS) Chief Investment Officer (CIO) Johan Jooste is urging investors to adopt a cautious stance going into 2017, going “underweight” on risk assets and “overweight” in cash.

“The key to the position is more to be able to take advantage of the opportunities that will almost surely come along,” explains Jooste in a weekly report on Tuesday.

Things will get worse for the Malaysian ringgit: BMI Research

Ringgit

HONG KONG (Jan 5): Malaysia’s ringgit, one of Asia’s worst-performing currencies over the past year, has further to fall, according to BMI Research.

Done with mourning Trump’s victory? Now, turn to Asian equity markets

SINGAPORE (Nov 9): While the setbacks of a possible Donald Trump presidency have been oft discussed among economists and analysts, few have actually expected the Republican to achieve a clean sweep victory that took the world by surprise on polling day.

“Despite short-term uncertainty, we continue to focus on the Asian opportunity. We believe that the US equity bull market looks long in tooth, while Asian equity markets, by contrast, are set to outperform over the next few years,” says Joshua Crabb, head of Asian equities at Old Mutual Global Investors in a Wednesday note.

Why the battle for Asian equities is only half won: Bank of Singapore

SINGAPORE (Oct 14): Although the Bank of Singapore remains “neutral” on Asian equities, the research house still prefers them over the developed markets (DM) of US, Europe and Japan, which have been ranked at “underweight”.

James Cheo, an investment strategist at Bank of Singapore, is convinced that Asian equities have become relatively better than their developed market counterparts this year.

While Asia’s earning growth rate is currently still negative, he notes that Asian earnings are beginning to improve after three straight years of contraction.

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