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Who has most to lose from US-China trade war

Bloomberg
Bloomberg5/20/2019 08:00 AM GMT+08  • 4 min read
Who has most to lose from US-China trade war
(May 20): US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on US$200 billion ($273.9 billion) worth of Chinese goods earlier this month and threatened to slap duties on all its exports to the US. About 1% of global economic activity is at stake in goods and servi
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(May 20): US President Donald Trump raised tariffs on US$200 billion ($273.9 billion) worth of Chinese goods earlier this month and threatened to slap duties on all its exports to the US. About 1% of global economic activity is at stake in goods and services traded between the two countries. Using 2015 data from the Organisation for Economic Co-operation and Development (OECD), we calculate which countries are most exposed to these trade flows and, within each country, which industries are most at risk.

Overall, 3.8% of Chinese output is exported to the US, with Chinese manufacturers by far the most exposed. In 2015, 6.7% of China’s manufacturing production was exported to the US, rising to 12% for the manufacture of computers, electronics and electrical equipment and 13% for the textile industry.

The hit to Chinese manufacturing would extend to partners along the supply chain, particularly across Asia’s electronics industry. US exports to China are more limited and represent a smaller share of the US economy — with 1.2% of US output exported to China. Still, 5.1% of US agricultural production and 3.3% of manufacturing output ended up in exports to China. Spillovers to other countries are very small.

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