SINGAPORE (May 20): The march of electric vehicles (EVs), is advancing at a steady clip, with commercial vehicles starting to grow significantly in addition to passenger vehicles. EVs are on track to dominate global sales of passenger cars and buses by 2040, and to encroach significantly on the market for vans and short-distance trucking, according to the Electric Vehicle Outlook 2019 report by research firm BloombergNEF (BNEF).
Come 2040, electric buses will make up 81% of municipal bus sales and 57% of global passenger car sales will be EVs, slightly higher than BNEF’s forecast made a year ago.
For the first time, BNEF has incorporated in its forecast projections for commercial vehicles. Over the coming two decades, light and medium electric commercial vehicles will make up 56% and 31% of total sales respectively.
On the other hand, EVs are not likely to gain as much acceptance in the heavy vehicle market. BNEF believes total sales of electric heavy trucks will be capped at less than a fifth, or 19%, in 2040. However, conventional heavy trucks on longhaul routes will also face other, non-electric competition — from alternatives using natural gas and hydrogen fuel cells.
“Our conclusions are stark for fossil fuel use in road transport,” says Colin Mc- Kerracher, head of advanced transport for BNEF. “Electrification will still take time because the global fleet changes over slowly but, once it gets rolling in the 2020s, it starts to spread to many other areas of road transport. We see a real possibility that global sales of conventional passenger cars have already passed their peak.”
According to BNEF, the uptick in the wider use of EVs will be underpinned by shared mobility services such as ride-hailing and car-sharing. These services account for less than 5% of all passenger miles travelled globally at the moment, but this is set to rise to 19% by 2040.
“Providers of shared mobility services will choose to go electric faster than private individuals,” says Ali Izadi-Najafabadi, who leads BNEF’s coverage of shared mobility.
“There are now over a billion users of shared mobility services such as ride-hailing globally. These services will continue to grow and gradually reduce demand for private vehicle ownership.”
Cost, as usual, will help too. Over the next 20 years, sharp reductions in EV battery costs will make EVs cheaper than so-called internal combustion alternatives by the mid-to-late 2020s in almost every market.
China, already a market leader in EVs, will continue to hold this lead. In 2025, China EV sales will account for 48% of total sales of the world. This proportion will be reduced to 26% come 2040 as other markets catch up.
