The tumult we saw in 2018 is not going to let up in 2019. Political, technological and climate changes will create uncertainty.

SINGAPORE (Dec 31): The biggest driver of change in the world now is undoubtedly the shifting relationship between China and the US. According to global consultancy Control Risks, what started as a trade conflict between the two countries has now morphed into a strategic rivalry of sorts that “will ultimately harden into a more permanent stance” next year.

Dane Chamorro, senior partner at Control Risks, says the current US administration sees China as a threat to the US and the liberal world order, and is seeking to prevent that through limiting China’s access to technology. Yet, Beijing sees technology as the key to development, has built the country’s economic structure around it, and is therefore unlikely to give it up. “You can have a trade agreement but it will be superficial,” Chamorro says.

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