UOB: Malaysia to lose up to RM5b if oil trades at US$55-US$65/barrel

KUALA LUMPUR (Dec 28): UOB Group said today its crude oil price forecast at US$55 ($75.40) to US$65 a barrel translates into a Malaysian government revenue loss at around RM2 billion to RM5 billion.

In a note today, UOB senior economist Julia Goh said the decline sensitivity in the country's oil-related revenue is RM300 million for every US$1 drop in crude oil prices. Goh said the calculation excludes Petroliam Nasional Bhd's (Petronas) dividend to the government.

"If we take the government and Petronas' medium term view of US$50/bbl-60/bbl for 2019-2021, this translates into a revenue loss of around RM3.6 billion-RM6.6 billion or 0.2%-0.4% of GDP (gross domestic product).