Four years ago, nobody expected that Donald Trump would be elected US President. “Donald Trump’s chances of winning are approaching zero,” screamed the Washington Post as Democrat Hilary Clinton established a 2–3% national lead on average according to FiveThirtyEight’s metrics. The seeming failure of polls in 2016 was deeply shocking to say the least for Democrats, who thought they had the race in the bag.

Four years later, Democratic challenger Joe Biden has established a commanding lead over his Republican opponent, even as incumbents typically enjoy an advantage in US Presidential races. “Both Biden’s average support and margin over Trump are historically large — the largest of any contender since Bill Clinton in 1996,” says FiveThirtyEight elections analyst Geoffrey Skelley in June when that lead was still 9.6%. With the lead now around double digits mere days before the polls, a second Trump victory will take nothing short of a miracle.

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