(July 20): The tea leaves of the world’s biggest bond market are producing a much-more foreboding reading than those of US stock prices.
America’s equity indexes are holding well above their pandemic-induced 2020 lows, yet the Treasury market increasingly is foreshadowing doubt over the pace of the economic rebound as new virus cases slow re-opening plans in many states. Ten-year real yields, considered a more-pure read on growth since they strip out inflation, have dropped for the past six weeks and hover at about -0.85%.
The Treasury market is charting its path based on the resurgent coronavirus and expectations that the Federal Reserve will push even harder on the monetary gas pedal, allowing inflation to run above its 2% target in the process. That has real rates, as measured by the yield on 10-year Treasury Inflation-Protected Securities, on course to potentially slide to as low -2% in the years ahead, according to Stephen Jen of Eurizon SLJ Capital.