(July 20): The tea leaves of the world’s biggest bond market are producing a much-more foreboding reading than those of US stock prices.

America’s equity indexes are holding well above their pandemic-induced 2020 lows, yet the Treasury market increasingly is foreshadowing doubt over the pace of the economic rebound as new virus cases slow re-opening plans in many states. Ten-year real yields, considered a more-pure read on growth since they strip out inflation, have dropped for the past six weeks and hover at about -0.85%.

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