Home Capital US-China trade war

Nobody wins in a trade war

Daryl Guppy
Daryl Guppy7/12/2019 07:30 AM GMT+08  • 5 min read
Nobody wins in a trade war
  Daryl Guppy is an international financial technical analysis expert and special consultant to AxiCorp. He has provided weekly Shanghai Index analysis for mainland Chinese media for more than a decade. Guppy appears regularly on CNBC Asia and is know
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(July 15): With remarkable — some might say suspicious — speed, the Purchasing Managers’ Index figures for June were released on July 1. The PMI reading fell to 51.7 in June. This was down from 52.1 in the previous month but above market expectations of 51.0. However, the latest reading points to the weakest pace of expansion in the manufacturing sector since October 2016.

The trade war is biting, as shown by the New Orders index. This index dropped to the lowest level since December 2015. It dropped 2.7 points from a month earlier to 50.0. The Prices Paid index also fell to a more than three-year low. The Prices Paid index fell 5.3 points to 47.9, the weakest level since February 2016.

If these measures are used to assess the success or failure of US tariffs and the trade war, then the answer appears clear. While not exactly bringing the economy to its knees, the results still show a steady and consistent impact.

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