After losing 145 points week-on-week during May 10–15, the Straits Times Index (STI) on May 17 managed to bounce off an intra-day low of 3,027 and its 100-day moving average. The 100-day moving average at 3,040 and a support area at 3,050 were sufficient to provide the STI with enough cushion to withstand the fall. With stochastics at the low end of its range and 21-day RSI and quarterly momentum both wanting to rebound, the downside for the index is likely to be limited. On the other hand, with ADX at an ebb and the DIs still negatively placed, the rebound is likely to be capped at 3,150, a level that was once a support.

There has been little change in the chart pattern since May 15. It shows that the STI broke below a thrice-tested support at 3,150 and its 50-day moving average at 3,140. The chart pattern also indicates that prices formed a minor top, and the downside from the break, which took place on May 12, is 3,040, a level which was whipsawed on May 17. With downside limited and upside capped, investors and traders alike may have to gird themselves for a boring rest of this month.

A sustained recovery by the index is unlikely and it may only materialise during the northern hemisphere’s summer months when there is sometimes a traditional summer rally.

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