Moody’s Analytics has put in writing what is becoming more evident by the day. The US will be the first country to reach herd immunity. Already, almost 25% of the population have been fully vaccinated, Covid-19 cases are falling and by July, herd immunity, which is around 70%–75%, should be reached.

As a result, people are likely to return to offices. Beneficiaries are likely to be Manulife US REIT (MUST), Prime US REIT, Keppel Pacific Oak US REIT (KORE), possibly United Hampshire US REIT and to a lesser extent Ascendas REIT and even ARA US Hospitality Trust.

As of April 6, 108 million in the US have been given at least one shot of the two-dose vaccine (Pfizer-BioNtech or Moderna) and 62 million are fully vaccinated. “On a seven-day moving average basis, vaccinations are running at 3.08 million (people), up from 2.08 million last month (March). Plugging this into our herd immunity calculation suggests this could be reached by mid-July,” says Moody’s Analytics in an April 7 report. According to the report, this timetable is sooner than Moody’s original baseline estimates.

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