Market and economic rebound to depend on successful vaccine roll-out

The Tantallon India Fund closed 3.44% higher in March with the markets blindsided by dramatic margin calls, mounting anxiety over China aggressively resetting the terms of engagement geopolitically, concerns over higher US Treasury yields and resurgent Covid infections even as mass vaccinations hold out hope for a “return to normal” by the end of the year.

Reflecting on the challenges of trying to map higher market volatility against the ebb and flow of vaccine optimism, fiscal stimulus, US green economy aspirations, rising Treasury yields, geopolitical stress points from the South China Sea to Crimea, gridlock in the Suez Canal, and crowded trades being margin-called, we would simply reiterate our view at 30,000 feet.

We are reassured that credit markets have largely stabilised. We remain comfortable projecting diminished tail risks and a “more or less” synchronised global economic recovery in the second half of 2021 as the pace of vaccinations pick-up.