The Tantallon India Fund closed up 2.34% higher in April with India’s second Covid wave casting a pall over a robust earnings season that significantly exceeded market expectations. The scale of human tragedy would suggest a harsh inevitability to a second national lockdown.

The markets, however, would seem to have found good support levels, with an investment calculus framed around new Covid-19 cases in India peaking in the middle of June, allowing for the current localised lockdowns to be lifted, restoring a more constructive stance on demand recovery, industrialisation and infrastructure spending.

A year ago, Covid infections centred around the slums, daily commuters compelled to use public transportation, and the pools of migrant labour and daily wage earners. This second wave has blind-sided the middle class and the affluent given the unfortunate confluence of political and bureaucratic ineptitude, recklessness prompted by lockdown “fatigue” and fatal vaccine complacency.

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