During the first peaks of the Covid crisis when there were widespread lockdowns, there was a concern that the full economic impact was not being reflected in market activity. Like economist Stephen Roach, I felt this contradiction would be resolved by the market pulling back to match the economic fundamentals of business hibernation. Both of us were wrong, although this did not prevent me from accumulating some good profits during this period.

We find ourselves again in a contradictory situation when it comes to China and its relationship with the world economy. It is no secret that US policy under Trump, and now Biden, was designed to reduce the economic exchanges with China. This meant a drop in imports from China and measures to reduce foreign investment in China.

Alarmed at China’s technological advances, the US instituted a range of restrictions on sales of high-tech products to China and Chinese investment in the US, and continues to heavily tax imports from China.

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