If the capacity of car parks at malls are anything to go by, the decline in retail seen during Singapore’s circuit breaker is moderating, says DBS Group Research. Analyst Derek Tan writes of a “reversion to mean” as consumers head back for “revenge shopping” in a September 7 note, though returning shoppers are showing changed habits.

Singapore’s July 2020 retail sales declined by 8.5% y-o-y, though retail sales are up 27.4% m-o-m, following the easing of lockdown measures in June. Notably, the proportion of online sales fell in July to 11% from 18% in June and 25% in May, as Singapore entered Phase 2 of its circuit breaker.

“While the ‘new normal’ [in the proportion of online sales] may be higher than the historical average of 5-6%, we believe that the pace of recovery within the brick-and-mortar shops will increase at a faster rate compared to online sales which is expected to remain at current levels or even decline,” writes Tan. 

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