Meanwhile, CDG’s bus contracting model (BCM) should remain stable as these are fixed contracts, and the Covid-19 situation in Singapore and Australia continues to remain under control, she notes. “A sharp drop in fuel prices in January to April 2020 has resulted lower BCM contract fees in 1HFY2020. With fuel prices recovering since 2QFY2020, we expect BCM to contribute a more stable portion in FY2021,” says Chan. “Thus, we have factored in 4.5% y-o-y revenue growth in public transport for FY2021 as we assume rail ridership will return to 75% of pre-Covid levels,” she adds. Ridership has also seen a sharp rebound in 3QFY2020, as riders now prefer taking taxis or private hire cars to reduce social interaction. “The momentum should continue to gather steam, and alternative data (the number of taxis at taxi stands during peak hours) suggests that taxi idling rate has decreased around 90% in the past three months,” she says. Chan also cites, anecdotally, that conversations with taxi drivers, as well as Grab drivers, suggest that the situation has improved “vastly”.
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