A team of CGS-CIMB economists have predicted the ASEAN economic recovery to follow a “Nike swoosh”, with Malaysia likely to lead the pack for Southeast Asia. In short, they are saying that following a short and steep recession, the regional economy will slowly pick up amid lasting economic pressures and gradual easing of lockdown measures.

“Demand shocks from permanent business closures, unemployment, debt impairments and more cautious consumption habits could cast a longer shadow on the economic recovery relative to past recessions,” writes the team comprising Michelle Chia, Lim Yee Ping and Muhammad Zafri Zulkeffeli in a broker’s report yesterday.

The team does not expect global GDP to recover to pre-Covid-19 levels until 2022. Disinflationary measures are likely to persist over the next 18 months, with supply side restoration outpacing demand renewal alongside strong economic stimulus. 

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