The 2020 US Presidential elections cannot be a repeat of the acrimonious 2016 polls where Republican Donald Trump was elected by the electoral college despite losing the popular vote, says OCBC’s Wellian Wiranto. A close or delayed result, he says, would present a significant challenge to the subdued market volatility that currently exists.
At present, Democratic challenger Joe Biden maintains a firm lead with 50% support against Trump’s 42.4%. These figures were based on an aggregate of existing opinion polls currently taking place in the US compiled by political news site RealClearPolitics. Yet the fact that Trump’s poll numbers have ticked up slightly following a reduction in cases could spell a tighter race come November.
“The fact that states such as Florida and Texas, which were previously badly affected, are now starting to see cases coming down would be important too, given the large electoral college vote counts whose swings in support would matter more than others,” says Wiranto. A quick rollout of a Covid-19 vaccine by the Trump administration could also offset his poor initial performance in handling the pandemic.