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The resurgence of Covid-19 in several countries stalled air travel recovery in 4Q2020, as border controls and lockdowns were implemented. International passenger traffic remained close to record low in Nov 2020, with a decline of 88.3% y-o-y in Revenue Passenger Kilometres (RPKs), compared to an 87.7% y-o-y drop in Oct 2020. But countries that saw improvements in the Covid-19 spread, saw an improvement in domestic travels, such as China and Russia. Domestic RPKs in China were only marginally down as compared to 2019 levels (4.8% lower y-o-y in Nov and 1.4% lower y-o-y in Oct 2020). However, recovery in other regions remained subdued due to high infection cases.
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“Cargo volumes are projected to recover back to the levels in 2019 and grow 13% y-o-y to 61.2 million tonnes in 2021. In addition, we expect yield to further improve given continued capacity crunch as it needs time for passenger travel to restart and to restore belly capacity,” she adds. On that note, Chu expects China to lead the recovery in 2021, given its large domestic market and its vaccination programme which is underway and aims to inoculate 50 million people before Lunar New Year.