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BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS

COMMENTARY
After falling through the last Australasian night, when the European markets started heating up so did the euro. The upward momentum for the common currency followed a fairly optimistic European Central Bank (ECB) Monthly Bulletin. There was still some caution advised by the ECB but it seems they generally feel the recovery is still heading in the right direction. While the bank set an 'expectation of moderation in the second half of this year, both at the global level and in the euro area,' they also note that the survey and data 'continue to indicate a positive underlying momentum of the recovery in the euro area.' The positive tone of this report was very supportive of the euro which just moments before was testing the lows for this week. Better-than-expected trade and employment data out of the US also helped the euro move higher as risk appetite served to weaken the dollar. On the technical front though, the euro still has a test coming near yesterday's high around 1.2763. Gauging by the markets uncertainty and some pretty strong support and resistance surrounding the price action of the last couple of days, traders may be content for the time being to let this pair continue to trade in a 100 pip channel. Dan Cook, Chicago

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