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BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS

COMMENTARY
The euro exploded higher overnight gaining almost 240 pips from yesterday’s low. There was nothing really that positive on the economic front in Europe; if anything, it was mostly negative with German Retail Sales contracting in July by 0.3%. The real economic driver around the globe today was a better than expected Manufacturing PMI reading out of China. While the reading of 51.7 was certainly not too far over expectations, the 0.5 point increase on the previous month indicated that growth remains strong for the consumption giant, thus creating an environment of risk appetite which tends to fuel the euro. The dollar has been able to pare back some of the losses after a much improved Manufacturing PMI reading of 56.3. Even with the recent gains though, the dollar remains well off of yesterday’s high point. There are still a lot of major economic announcements coming out this week, including a rate statement and press conference from the European Central Bank (ECB) tomorrow. While the rate will likely stay at 1.00%, the press conference held by Jean-Claude Trichet, President of the ECB, always has the ability to kick up volatility in the market—particularly during the unscripted question and answer portion. Dan Cook, Chicago

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