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BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS

COMMENTARY
After a bit of a rough start to the morning, the euro was able to spring back to life and set a new high mark for the week. The economic news out of Europe today was somewhat mixed, but neither great nor terrible on either side. The GfK German Consumer Climate Index improved one tick to 4.1 which at that point pushed the euro to a new weekly high just over 1.2740. This climb didn’t last long though as the move faltered just beyond the previous zone of resistance. Soon after a light sell-off began, more pressure was added to the euro when the European Central Bank (ECB) reported that M3 Money Supply remained steady at 0.2% growth. Economists had forecast a slightly more robust 0.4% growth so this was a slight disappointment, but not terrible news either. Once again this week though, the euro found its footing after the US Initial Unemployment Claims number was released. The total was improved over last week, but that doesn’t say much and the fact that it was still about 40K over the estimated population of Miami created definite dollar weakness. Over the next two hours the euro was able to reach a high of 1.2764 before falling victim to some profit taking activity. While it is only in the very short term, the euro has been able to put in higher highs and higher lows over the last day and a half and has a very slight edge on the dollar. If a new high can be made, more resistance may lay between very close between about 1.2780 and 1.2790. Dan Cook, Chicago

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