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BLOOMBERG MEDIAN FORECASTS

COMMENTARY
Support for the euro returned this morning following reports that Greece is likely to receive its next instalment of rescue funds. Officials from the IMF have stated that Greece has made ‘great progress’ in implementing tough austerity measures to bring down the country’s debt and is ahead of targets in some areas. Further adding to EUR/USD gains was a larger-than-expected rise in German factory orders in June. Germany has been showing great signs of strength in recent months, bolstered by booming exports, which have helped ease fears that conditions in Europe are deteriorating. The improved sentiment towards the euro saw the continental currency regain the losses from yesterday against the US dollar, and it is trading back over $1.3200. The ECB will make its latest interest rate decision today at 12.45pm (London time). Expectations are for interest rates to remain on hold at 1%, however investors will be paying close attention to ECB President Jean-Claude Trichet’s speech at 1.30pm (London time) for hints of any policy changes considering the improved conditions in the eurozone. Suggestions have been made that M. Trichet must now consider an exit strategy to slowly wean the European banking sector off easing money, which would send a strong message that the European debt crisis has turned a corner. David Choe, London

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