Singapore’s economy probably returned to growth this quarter as manufacturing rebounded, putting the nation on course to surpass Malaysia’s output with the world’s second-fastest growth rate this year.

Gross domestic product rose an annualized 9.4% in the three months through Dec. 31 from the previous quarter, when it contracted 18.7%, according to the median estimate of eight economists surveyed by Bloomberg News. The economy grew 13.2% from a year earlier, the median of 12 estimates showed. The report is due at 8 a.m. on Jan. 3.

Asia has led a global recovery this year as growth in developed markets was restrained by Europe’s sovereign credit woes and US unemployment that remains above 9%. Prime Minister Lee Hsien Loong has said Singapore can’t maintain this year’s pace of expansion, forecast at 15%, and his policy makers have moved to cool the property market and allowed faster currency gains to tame prices.

“Inflation risks for Singapore appear to be tilted toward the upside,” said Alvin Liew, a Singapore-based economist at Standard Chartered Plc. After the boost from manufacturing this year, Singapore’s tourism and financial services industries will increasingly drive growth in 2011, spurred by “rising regional domestic demand from China and Southeast Asia,” he said.

Lee may give some economic estimates in his annual New Year’s Eve message later today. The government expects GDP to expand as much as 6% in 2011, and its forecast for this year would make the city of 5 million people the fastest-growing economy in the world after Qatar’s, according to International Monetary Fund estimates.