Singapore’s economy will probably expand in 2011 at a third of this year’s pace as manufacturing and export growth slows, a central bank survey showed.

Gross domestic product may increase 5.1% next year after a 15% expansion in 2010, according to the median estimate in a survey of 22 economists by the Monetary Authority of Singapore released today. The Singapore dollar may strengthen to $1.24 versus the U.S. currency by the end of 2011, the survey showed.

Singapore’s economic expansion this year has fueled inflation, prompting the central bank to allow faster currency gains and leading the government to implement measures to cool the property market. The island has remained vulnerable to fluctuations in overseas demand for manufactured goods even after the government boosted financial services and tourism.

“Manufacturing may face hollowing-out pressures, under the government’s twin policies of a stronger currency and stricter foreign-labor policies,” Chua Hak Bin, a Singapore-based economist at Bank of America Merrill Lynch, said in a report today. “Growth drivers in 2011 include tourism and financial services. Travel, trade and finance should benefit from the continuing strength in Asian intra-regional trade.”