CLSA estimates market giving SGX (S68.SG), ASX (ASX.AU) merger less than one-in-three chance of proceeding, with ASX still at material discount to implied value of proposed bid.

“Unfortunately, we believe investors will need to wait for the back-end of January and the Australian Summer before the political situation gains clarity.”

Says proposal appears highly (i.e. over 20%) EPS-accretive, but due largely to financial leverage; “this will not be costless in terms of risk. Nor will the material increase in AUD currency exposure.”