DBS Vickers says Keppel Corp (BN4.SG) in sweeter spot after Petrobras tender bids revealed, could win 4-11 contracts worth US$3.5-$8 billion ($4.6-$10.5), while SembCorp Marine (S51.SG) could end up with 0-7 drillship contracts.

Keeps Keppel at buy, raises FY11/FY12F earnings by 2.0%-3.0% on shortened recognition period for newbuild orders to 24-27 months vs up to 36 months previously, raises target to $12.20 vs S$11.30, raises valuation peg on O&M division to 18.5x vs 16.7x.

For Sembcorp Marine, says competitive edge weakened by higher pricing. “However, given the Alusa consortium’s absence of track record, Petrobras may choose to award contracts to SMM, to diversify its risk exposure.”