UOB KayHian says Marina Bay Sands’ estimated 3Q10 casino EBITDA of about $278 million (after Las Vegas Sands 3Q results) “fell short of rising market chatter and expectation that MBS would pip Resorts World Sentosa this quarter.”

Notes, rolling chip volume at MBS of about $13.5 billion surpasses house estimates for Genting Singapore (G13.SG) of $11 billion, while rise in MBS’ VIP commission rates confirm view VIP segment competition intensified. 

“In terms of share of Singapore’s 3Q10 casino business, we reckon that MBS would claim close to a 50% share of industry EBITDA and play intensity (total gross amount wagered in VIP and mass),” says analyst Vincent Khoo. 

 

Adds, no change to house view Genting’s 3Q10 EBITDA will fall significantly on-quarter to $300 million-$330 million vs 2Q EBITDA of $513.9 million. Genting to report 3Q November 11; shares +3.3% at $2.20, fell 4.1% Wednesday.