Keppel Corp. (BN4.SG), SembMarine (S51.SG) require some sizable contracts from Petrobras to sustain their share prices as investors have so far been ignoring their declining orderbooks, says UOB KayHian.

UOB KayHian Notes contract wins by both rig builders “virtually non-existent” in 2Q10, with Keppel securing only $50 million worth of orders vs $1.16 billion achieved in 1Q10, while SembMarine had none in 2Q10 vs $680 million in 1Q10.

Broker says year-to-date contract values well below house’s 2010 estimate of $5 billion for Keppel, $3 billion for SembMarine; “downside and upside risks (for both stocks) are contingent on Petrobras contract wins.”

Keeps Hold call on both, with $8.90 target for Keppel, $3.85 target for SembMarine. Petrobras’ tender exercise for 28 rigs has closed, with outcome expected later this year. Keppel +1.2% at $8.55, SembMarine +1.1% at $3.85.