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IN RECENT WEEKS, a surprising number of foreign observers with interests in Singapore have been asking whether the citystate would adopt more populist policies that would undermine its attractiveness as a business centre or raise costs. Some have even asked whether the political stability they took for granted was at risk.
A careful look at the political and economic determinants of Singapore’s political stability and policymaking suggests that these concerns are quite unwarranted. Singapore is changing; it is becoming more of a normal country with normal politics and so there might be some more uncertainties than we have been used to. But, the pillars of the system are robust, implying that businesses and investors, whether local or foreign, have little to fear.
Increased competitiveness and complexity of Singapore political system
That the candidate favoured by the establishment, Dr Tony Tan, secured victory with only 35.2% of the votes and only 0.4 percentage points ahead of his next-mostpopular rival marks a fundamental structural change in Singapore politics.
Although his nearest rival, Dr Tan Cheng Bock, is a former parliamentarian from the ruling People’s Action Party (PAP), Dr Tan C B had become an occasional critic of government policy and the 34.8% of the votes he garnered certainly did not represent the splitting of the votes of PAP loyalists between two candidates who both agreed with the PAP world view.
Instead, the election showed clearly that the hard core of support that the PAP could rely on has been reduced to just above a third of the electorate — from something closer to around half the electorate a few years ago.
More than that, it shows a Singapore electorate that is basically divided three ways:
- A hard core of about 35% who are PAP loyalists through and
- through;
- Another hard core of around 30% (representing the votes garnered by Tan Jee Say and Tan Kin Lian, who were more vigorously critical of existing PAP policies) who are alienated from the PAP and want deeper changes in Singapore; and
- A middle ground of around 35% who are uncomfortable enough with some aspects of PAP rule to vote tactically against the party when they want to send a signal to the government but who do not want political incoherence to be created by a more confrontational style of politics. These voters are probably comfortable with continued PAP rule and would consider voting for the PAP again should policies change.
In other words, the electorate is divided, but the nature of the division does not affect long-term stability — the division is not along ideological or ethnic lines but on less emotive policy-oriented lines.
