THE BIG NEWS of today was the Singapore Exchange is expected to make a full takeover bid for the Australian Stock Exchange on Monday. SGX is bigger than the ASX with a market value of around $10 billion against A$6.2 billion ($7.9 billion) for the ASX and is also trading on a multiple of 27 times against 17 times for the ASX. According to The Australian, the chairman and CEO will be from SGX and the deputy chairman will be from ASX.

The other big news this week — the 25 bp hike in interest rates in China — may turn out to be a non-event, say some analysts. Nomura Securities says that equity markets ought to have little to fear from the rate hike. “At first sight the rate hike might not appear to be good news for equities, but we think it ought to remove the threat of arbitrary rule changes on sectors that have undermined investor sentiment,” the report states. Indeed, Nomura is bullish on China A-shares. Interestingly, some of their ADRs (American Depository Receipts) started trading on SGX’s GlobalQuote board today.

 

Unfortunately, dealers reported that in total only $10 million worth of shares changed hands and expectations were too high. Shares of SGX fell 27 cents today to end the week at $9.54, down 72 cents, or 7% from an intra-day high of $10.26 on Oct 15.

 

Among the ADRs, Nomura has a Buy on is Chinese search engine Baidu, which announced today that its net profit had risen 112.4% year-on-year to RMB1.05 billion ($205.5 million) in 3Q10 on the back of a 72% rise in revenue to RMB2.26 billion. The counter is trading at a forward PE of 6.4 times according to Nomura.

 

Chemical company Sinopec Shanghai PetroChina, also rated as a Buy by Nomura, is trading at a forecast PER of 10.3 times for FY2011 and a price to book of 1.34 times.

 

Other stocks include PetroChina, which has a PER of 11 times for FY11 and a price to book of 1.75 times. Huaneng Power International has a forecast PER of 15.8 times for FY11 and is trading at a price to book of 1.2 times while Suntech Power Holdings, a renewable energy company, has a forecast PER of 9.2 times and is trading at a price to book of 1.15 times.

 

In Singapore, the rush of liquidity could benefit commodity plays, Nomura says. Golden Agri Resources and Indofood Agri Resources are its top picks. DBS Vickers Securities is upgrading its target for crude palm oil upwards between 2-11% for the next two years, due to expectations for a weaker USD, firm soybean oil price and steep Fresh Fruit Brunch yield drop in 1Q11.

 

Its top pick is Indofood Agri which has a target price of $3.10. DBS says that it is expecting a 13-14% volume recovery p.a. in 2011 and 2012, and is raising earnings forecast by 23.4%, 30.4% and 21.6% for 2010, 2011 and 2012 respectively on higher CPO price assumptions. First Resources is also being upgraded to a Buy. DBS is forecasting an earning lift of 8% this year, 13.5% next year, and 7.1% in 2012. “The contribution from their fractionation plant to be commission next year is yet to be imputed into our forecast,” DBS says.

 

Kencana Agri has also been upgraded to a Buy, with upward earnings revision of 10.5% for this year, 17.8% for next year, and 8% for 2012. Kencana is likely to be expanding planted hectarage by 6,000 ha p.a. However, Wilmar International has been downgraded to a Hold.

 

Clearly, the STI’s (3,173) uptrend appears to be entrenched. Nonetheless, a short-term correction is likely following negative divergences and declines by short-term stochastics and RSI. Support is now at 3,120. The index has an eventual target of 3,400.