THE EXCITEMENT ABOUT Myanmar is growing as the country’s leaders have surprised everyone by beginning a process of political and economic reforms. With its population of around 60 million, a strategic position bordering China and India and an undoubted wealth of under-exploited resources, a reforming Myanmar could well become the investment story of the decade. Will Myanmar live up to the optimistic expectations or will it disappoint?

 Our take is an optimistic one. We believe that enough momentum will be built as a result of the reforms so far to overcome obstacles to a surge in growth. However, it is typical of countries in the early stages of a growth surge to encounter occasional mishaps along the way, so investors must be prepared for some accidents along the way.

HAVING RISEN SIGNIFICANTLY in recent months, global financial markets are now see-sawing violently. This is typical of a period when there is great uncertainty over critically important variables. In this context, it is always useful to clarify what the definite positives and negatives are and to at least have a deeper understanding of the really unpredictable variables. What we will do is look at four of the most important issues — oil prices, the US recovery, eurozone political developments and China’s economic prospects.